Bosnians head to the polls tomorrow for their country’s quadrennial general elections. Facing the vote are the country’s national parliament, the tripartite national presidency, the parliaments of both the Republika Srpska and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the President of the Republika Srpska. Confused? In this country of three religions, two entities, three presidents, neutral districts, and high representatives, confusion is forgivable — if not inevitable.

Background

Bosnia’s constitution is still formed primarily by the Dayton Agreement, the peace agreement that ended the 1992–1995 war. Under the constitution, the country is split into two so-called “entities”: the primarily Bosniak (Muslim) and Croat (Catholic) Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the primarily Serb (Orthodox Christian) Republika Srpska. Each entity enjoys considerable autonomy, with its own parliament, police force, and other institutions; the central government, conversely, was made deliberately weak to better facilitate power sharing.

Tensions between Bosnia’s three ethnic groups remain high, and power sharing in government is a necessity. This is most apparent in the setup of the country’s presidency: the body has three seats, one Bosniak, one Croat, and one Serb, each of which holds the chairmanship of the presidency for a rotating eight month term. That means that for each four year period between elections, each ethnicity will be represented as head of state for a perfectly equal sixteen months.

Key Issues

Since the war, Bosnian election campaigns have typically been dominated by bitter arguments over the country’s constitutional future, and 2010 has been no exception.

At one extreme, there are figures like Haris Silajdžić — currently the holder of the Bosniak seat on the Presidency — who want to abolish the two entities and create a single, pluralistic state; at the other, there are figures like Milorad Dodik — currently Prime Minister of the Republika Srpska, and candidate for President of the Republika Srpska — who want to see the two entities granted full independence. Reconciling these two extremes has so far proved impossible, and has been the biggest problem in Bosnian politics.

The economy has also proved an important issue. Much of Bosnia’s infrastructure remains un-repaired following the war, let alone updated for the twenty-first century. Officially, unemployment in Bosnia is forty per cent; though the existence of a substantial grey economy means the figure is more likely around twenty-five per cent, that’s still a dreadfully high figure.

EU membership remains a far-off dream for Bosnia — in contrast to its neighbours, Serbia and Croatia — but high on the list of priorities for the incoming government will be continue the progress towards visa liberalisation, allowing Bosnians to travel visa-free into the Schengen Zone. Such liberalisation, as well as bringing its own benefits, is seen as an early step on the road to full membership of the EU.

Key Figures

Haris Silajdžić — Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBiH) — standing for presidency. Current holder of the Bosniak seat on the presidency, and was Foreign Minister during the 1992–1995 war. Strong critic of the current constitution; wants to see a pluralistic state created, with no entities.

Nebojša Radmanović — Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) — standing for presidency. Currently the Serb member of the presidency, and a member of Milorad Dodik’s party. Will likely win big simply by association with Dodik, in what will surely be a bumper year for the SNSD.

Željko Komsić — Social Democratic Party (SDP) — standing for presidency. Current holder of the Croat seat on on the presidency. One of the few politicians in Bosnia to run a multiethnic campaign, his popularity among both Bosniaks and Croats secured him election in 2006 and will likely do so again.

Fahrudin Radončić — Union for a Better Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBB-BiH) — standing for presidency. Media magnate, property tycoon, self-styled Berlusconi figure and attractor of almost constant controversy. 2010 marks Radončić’s first foray into politics: with the uncritical backing of his newspaper Dnevni Avaz, the most popular in Bosnia, and with a platform of economic renewal and jobs creation, he certainly stands a chance of unseating Silajdžić.

Bakir Izetbegović — Party of Democratic Action (SDA) — standing for presidency. Son of Alija Izetbegović, the wartime president, Izetbegović junior has been dogged by allegations of involvement in organised crime, though he denies this. The SDA, erstwhile stalwarts of Bosniak politics from the first multiparty elections in Yugoslavia, face an uphill struggle in attempting to regain the presidential seat they lost to Silajdžić in 2006.

Milorad Dodik — Alliance of Independent Social Democrats — standing for President of the Republika Srpska. A divisive figure but a canny political operator, Dodik is incredibly popular in the Republika Srpska and his election looks almost a formality. Formerly a moderate, courted by the west in preference to Radovan Karadžić, he formerly advocated only increased autonomy for the Republika Srpska; recently, though, he has become increasingly public about his desire to see it granted full independence, especially following the recent ICJ decision on Kosovo.